There is NO WAY either candidate is going to allow Puerto Rico to decide the nomination. Nothing is more de-legitimizing than being put over the top delegate-wise by a non-state, no matter what semantics they place upon the voting public. Puerto Rico gets no love as a state, a free associated state, or a colony. I guarantee you it would get ugly if it came down to it.

Anyway. It’s true, the Latino vote is not monolithic in the least, and I think that’s been discussed plenty. But this recent event in Cuba should give us pause. Florida politics are going to get even more interesting, as if they weren’t already. I think the next President will likely be dealing with a massive (and possibly violent) political transition in Cuba…and a fairly large refugee crisis afterward. Furthermore, if things change rapidly over there (i.e. if Castro or his brother die or end up assassinated), we will QUICKLY need to know the candidates’ positions on normalizing relations, military intervention on the island, economic aid and investment, etc. Bottom line…Cuba is a WAY bigger issue than folks are even willing to acknowledge now.

@Peabody: It’s funny [sad] how the Clintons have been trying to spin Obama as the “establishment” candidate because of some of the high-profile endorsements he’s won recently. Worse, though, is when the media buys into and starts to cast her as the underdog. Even worse than that is when otherwise intelligent people I know start parroting that nonsense. The Clintons have always played politics from a cynical perspective and this year it finally backfired on them.

Hillary is the “establishment” at the DNC and this is why Obama poses a problem to the powers that be who run that camp. If people sadly believe that Hillary is about new change, they haven’t spent enough time in Washington politics to see the behind the scenes deals that are made. Deals which have nothing to do with empowering Latinos, never mind the Black community.

There is no monolithic Latino vote, just a media that portrays this so called “Latino” identity as the new Irish-American, Italian-American, Latino American voter block. In telemundo and univision, everyone is blond, blue eye, and has light skin with long hair. LOL!

Keep in mind that this Latino label doesn’t take into consideration Race. Obama is a problem for both the RNC and the DNC. Folks can argue it any way they want but Obama is a black candidate who if elected, sends a clear message that things are going to change in the way the DNC does politics. Howard Dean did this using the internet and disenfranchised voters, now he runs the DNC.

If Hillary gets the nomination, not just Latinos, but everyone will get a glimpse of a candidate who says one thing and does another. Did anyone remember that the first thing Bill Clinton did before taking office as president was to execute a mentally handicapped man in Arkansas. Hillary was right there supporting her husband on that decision. You have to look at the past to understand who you are voting to lead you in the future.

That being said, while it surprised me at first that the Mexican-American vote was breaking hard for Clinton, it probably shouldn’t have. Strip the voting Mexican-American demographic down to its essentials, and you’ve basically got a sizable blue collar labor demographic, and a growing and increasingly affluent middle class with a lot to lose from the Bush recession. In other words, your classic, straight-ahead Democrats. Oh, and Catholics, also a traditional Democrat base, although Bush eroded that some. (And the a lot of Catholics seem to regret that decision …)

I think, if they had broken for Obama, there’d be a lot of people talking about Mexican machismo and how they’d never vote for a woman, when the answer’s much simpler: traditional Democrats broke for the most traditional Democratic candidate.

@Kashe: While the media certainly forces their own narratives on things every step of the way, I think it’s rather difficult to blame them for Clinton being considered the front-runner coming into the campaign. She had the name recognition, abundant goodwill left over from Bill’s two terms as President, a formidable fund-raising machine and a revised primary schedule that absolutely favored the candidate with the most money. Biden, Dodd and Richardson all offered much more relevant experience than she had but none of them had the financial backing to compete with her. What turned it into a legitimate race was the combination of her vote for the Iraq war (exacerbated by her continued refusal to admit it was a mistake) and the completely unpredictable rise of Obama as a viable alternative.

Also have to question the media as far as the Latino vote–what do pollsters really know? How are they really getting their info?

And isn’t this a winner for the Republicans ( who have been the one pushing who nomination for 5 years ands till think she will get it) If she does win the nomination? The “fact” that Latinos vote for her in huge numbers will be used against her. Be thankful that they say Barack Obama isn’t getting the latino vote. “How are all those illegals voting for Hilliary ?”

And whats scariest about this, is that once Obama does get the nomination, everything will be turned and twisted on him, will he be ready? Can he fight it and still stay true to his message. Just listen to how the 24/7 cable people and talk show hosts tlak about people who vote for Obama, and think of the unattractive ways that this can be worded ones he gets the nomination.

* By media I include 24/7 Cable news hosts and pundits, talk radio, and big name alternative news sites and blogs.

It’s really sad and unfortunate, but I think that pollster was right when he made that comment, and all the backtracking afterwards doesnt make a difference. The proof is in the [vanilla] pudding.