Has Dean Peaked?

For all those ready to coronate Dean on the basis of his poll numbers in TWO small states that have been the center of attention, a look at the National numbers should be rather sobering:

Quinnipiac University Poll. (Dec. 4-8, 2003)

“Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were [see below] the Democrat, and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?”

Bush: 50% / Clark: 41% / Don’t Know: 6%

Bush: 51% / Dean: 40% / Don’t Know: 5%

Bush: 51% / Lieberman: 40% / Don’t Know: 5%

Bush: 51% / Kerry: 39%/ Don’t Know: 6%

Bush: 53% / Gephardt: 38% /Don’t Know: 5%

Bush: 52% / Edwards: 37% / Don’t Know: 6%

Bush: 56% / Moseley Braun: 33% / Don’t Know: 6%

Bush: 55% / Kucinich: 32% / Don’t Know: 8%

Bush: 59% / Sharpton: 29% / Don’t Know: 6%

Interestingly, the so-called “major” candidates all experienced a 2-5% drop from their October highs, including the supposedly unstoppable Doctor (10/03: Bush 48%, Dean 42%). Meanwhile, a couple of the so-called longshots – with numbers being reported for the first time in the December poll – are within striking distance of all of them, especially when you factor in the differential in media coverage between the two tiers.

In other words, only 8% more people would vote for Dean than Kucinich and most people don’t know who the hell Kucinich is yet!

Could this mean that Dean has peaked and the media frenzy that has thus far propped him up will now be looking for the next insurgent?

Keep hope alive!

Written by Guy LeCharles Gonzalez

Guy LeCharles Gonzalez is the Chief Content Officer for LibraryPass, and former publisher & marketing director for Writer’s Digest. Previously, he was also project lead for the Panorama Project; director, content strategy & audience development for Library Journal & School Library Journal; and founding director of programming & business development for the original Digital Book World.