Guy LeCharles Gonzalez (aka glecharles) (aka loudpoet)

An arm with a tattoo: "I was made for the library, not the classroom."

Primary Predictions: Prepared for the Worst

I’m fully prepared for the highly likely possibility that Clinton wins both OH and TX tonight, albeit narrowly, and if so, will rightfully declare that her campaign will continue through Pennsylvania’s 4/22 primary. The “comeback kid” spin will be dizzying, again, for the next 24 hours, despite the reality being that she won’t actually have managed to put much of a dent in the overall delegate gap, the previous benchmark her campaign had set to measure her viability when they thought this would be finished back on February 5th.

Delegate counts aren’t a sexy story, though, and the media is still engaging in a silly moment of self-loathing thanks to Tina Fey, so the Obama campaign will have their work cut out for them over the next seven weeks.

Assuming tonight doesn’t result in an unexpected blowout by either side — and all spin aside, that’s really what Clinton needs to legitimately justify her staying in the race — here’s what I think Obama’s plan of attack will [should] be to deliver the final knockout blow in Pennsylvania, if not before:

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An arm with a tattoo: "I was made for the library, not the classroom."

Scorched Earth Politics

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ou4JnWQsxKw] Because in the end, it's all about getting a Democrat Clinton back in the White House, right? I'm not terribly confident that this thing is going to end tomorrow night, but I'm more and more confident that the Democrats are going to find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory yet again. On a related note, I think Bloomberg may have taken his cards off of the table a week too soon and perhaps not by accident, considering Mr. Non-Partisan's recent $500k donation to the NY G.O.P. to help Republicans hold on to their tenuous control of the State Senate…

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An arm with a tattoo: "I was made for the library, not the classroom."

The War in Iraq Summed Up

 In last night's debate, Obama put it this way: "The question is who's making the decision initially to drive the bus into the ditch. The fact is that Senator Clinton often says that she is ready on day one, but in fact she was ready to give in to George Bush on day one on this critical issue." And to John McCain today, he offered this: "John McCain may like to say he wants to follow Osama bin Laden to the gates of Hell, but so far all he’s done is follow George Bush into a misguided war in Iraq."…

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An arm with a tattoo: "I was made for the library, not the classroom."

About the Farrakhan moment

[youtube:http://youtube.com/watch?v=nJkU1e-_r3w]

The lowlight of tonight’s debate was, without question I think, when Tim Russert referenced Louis Farrakhan’s “endorsement” of Barack Obama this past weekend, asking if he accepted his support, and after Obama clearly and completely denounced Farrakhan’s past statements about Jews and Judaism as “unacceptable and reprehensible” and defended his own record on Jewish issues and U.S.-Israel relations, Hillary Clinton managed to sink beneath her husband’s worst “dogwhistle” moments in South Carolina and finally and effectively guarantee that I will never cast a vote for her ever again, in any election of any kind.

Referencing her first Senate run in 2000, she jumped into the discussion just as it seemed to be ending, noting with a straight face that she had “faced a similar situation” and, for a moment, I thought maybe she was going to do the honorable thing and defend Obama against a valid question that Russert was belaboring after 5 minutes, but instead she decides to attempt to score a cheap point by playing semantics:

“One of the parties at the time, the Independence Party, was under the control of people who were anti-semitic, anti-Israel, and I made it very clear I did not want their support, I rejected it. I thought it was more important to stand on principle…

You asked specifically if he would reject it and there’s a difference between denouncing and rejecting. I just think we’ve got to be even stronger.”

(Transcription via Ben Smith)

Mind you, the Independence Party carries very little weight in a statewide race here in New York and, once Rudy Giuliani was forced to drop out because of his battle with prostate cancer, Clinton coasted to a relatively easy victory, so claiming that her rejection of their support was some principled stand as opposed to little more than a grandstanding pander bear moment for the Jewish community is simply disingenuous. Further, equating the formal support of a political party, no matter how small, with that of a singular, though controversial, individual is extremely disingenuous.

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An arm with a tattoo: "I was made for the library, not the classroom."

Monday Mash-up, 2/25/08

Stop. Drop. Roll.1) Virginia was simultaneously relaxing and a bit of a disappointment as the weather sucked the whole time we were there so we didn’t get any outside time.  I stayed home on Wednesday night intending to get to bed early but my empty-house-insomnia was in full effect and I ended up falling asleep around 2am. When I booked my 8am flight the week before, I hadn’t really thought about the travel time to JFK and ended up catching a cab at 5:45am to get there in time, passing out later that afternoon from exhaustion. The kids had a good time, though, as my mother pulled out all of the stops in the arts & crafts department, and my stepfather spent more time with them than he ever has, teaching Isaac how to play card games and hanging out with India watching TV. Also, Salomé cooked ox tails. Yum!

2) We caught Juno while we were there and absolutely loved it! I rank it up there with Say Anything and have tentatively penciled it in to my all-time Top 10 Favorites list. Ellen Page is adorable and sassy, reminding me a little bit of both Cristin O’Keefe Aptowicz and Brooke Wacha, both in and out of character, and I totally related to Michael Cera’s understated Bleeker, who reminded me a lot of my not-cool, not-totally-uncool high school self. Interestingly, I picked up [Juno writer and Oscar winner!] Diablo Cody’s memoir Candy Girl : A Year in the Life of an Unlikely Stripper in hardcover off of the bargain table at Barnes & Noble afterwards, and am looking forward to reading it. I suspect any additional copies have been taken to a back room and the paperback edition has been placed on a prominent display table in all of their stores as of this morning.

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