Pop Culture

While Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest finishing first at the box office this weekend was a no-brainer, I doubt even the most optimistic pundit predicted an eye-popping, record-breaking haul of $132 million in its first three days.

$132 million: aka Biggest. Opening. EVER!

Savvy, indeed!

Boxofficemojo’s ALL TIME BOX OFFICE: OPENING WEEKENDS chart puts that number in perspective:

1) Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest — $132,028,000
2) Spider-Man — $114,844,116 ($403,706,375; 28.4%)
3) Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith — $108,435,841 ($380,270,577; 28.5%)
4) Shrek 2 — $108,037,878 ($441,226,247; 24.5%)
5) X-Men: The Last Stand — $102,750,665 ($231,288,000; 44.4%)

Considering the first Pirates opened with a relatively paltry $46,630,690 on its way to a $305m domestic haul (plus an amazing $348m overseas), the sequel should be a shoo-in for breaking the $300m mark again, with a decent shot at pulling a Shrek 2, outperforming its predecessor and reaching the rarified air of a $400m+ box office upon initial release. (Star Wars and E.T. took multiple releases to surpass that mark.)

But what of the Man of Steel and his reported $21,850,000 booty, a harsh 58% drop from his opening weekend (Friday-Sunday only) for a stinging $5,375/theater average that pretty much guarantees a significant drop in theaters as Pirates and “sleeper” hit, The Devil Wears Prada (a 43% drop in its second weekend, while matching Superman’s average in nearly a third fewer theaters) will still be drawing significant audiences next weekend. Plus, there’s four new major releases opening the weekend after next.

With $141,677,000 over its first 12 days, while Superman Returns is definitely no Spider-Man and can hardly be considered a franchise-killer on par with Batman and Robin, will it at least be considered a success on the level of Batman Begins, or is it more of an underwhelming disappointment that calls for a return to the drawing board, like The Hulk?

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[Edited to add a conclusion!]

The early numbers are in and Superman Returns has raked in an estimated $84,208,000 at the domestic box office over its first five days in release, $12m ahead of Batman Begins over the same period, but with 2/3rds of that difference coming in over the first two days. Its $52,150,000 during the Friday-Sunday period — which ranks as only the 5th best opening in 2006, 47th overall — is almost tied with Batman Begins’ opening Friday-Sunday haul (June 17-19: $48,745,440) which ended up representing 23.7% of its total $205,343,774 gross.

If the Man of Steel can match the Dark Knight’s pace, Superman Returns should come in around $220 million at the domestic box office, notably short of its well-publicized $260 million production budget, a figure that doesn’t include what is very likely a hefty marketing budget of at least $50 million. Figure a foreign box office total matching Batman Begins’ $166 million, and you have a potential $400+ million blockbuster that in some circles will be considered a disappointment, a la Peter Jackson’s King Kong ($218m domestic BO, $207m budget).

The big question, though, is does Superman have Batman’s legs, and is not reaching the $200m plateau a possibility?

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