Sep 09
10
Will eBook Exuberance Kill Publishing?
One iPhone Case To Rule Them All by Photo Giddy
“Originally, we weren’t exactly sure how to market the Touch. Was it an iPhone without the phone? Was it a pocket computer? What happened was, what customers told us was, they started to see it as a game machine. We started to market it that way, and it just took off.”
–Steve Jobs, Steve Jobs on Amazon and Ice Cream
There’s a particularly virulent meme running through the publishing industry that says the only thing keeping eBooks from supplanting print books tomorrow is a great eReader, and that Apple’s long-rumored Tablet is that killer device. Yesterday, another Apple event came and went and, as has happened every single time, there was neither an announcement of a Tablet, nor any mention of eBooks being a critical part of their plans for world domination.
Interestingly, Jobs specifically noted that eBooks weren’t a significant market yet, pointing to Amazon’s continued silence on the actual number of Kindles they’ve sold: ”Usually, if they sell a lot of something, you want to tell everybody.”
Two other notable developments popped up yesterday that suggest the hype surrounding eBooks has hit an unwarranted level of “irrational exuberance”: the premature demise of Quartet Books (“there are very few industry best practices“), and Tor.com’s announcement of a POD-based imprint.
Some additional perspective:
“The installed base of e-readers could soar from 1 million in 2008 to 32 million in 2014, the report stated. Credit Suisse expects about 4 million e-readers will be in use in the U.S. by the close of this year…
However, while Kindles are profitable, Amazon loses an estimated $1.50 per e-book it sells, although this should flip to profitability in 2012 as Amazon’s costs come down.”
The Association of American Publishers says e-book (electronic book), sales topped $12 million in June – up more than 150 percent from the same month last year.
“Sales [at Barnes & Noble] fell 5.3% to $1.16 billion as same-store sales fell 6.9%, in line with the company’s forecast for a same-store sales decline of 5% to 7%.”
Barnes & Noble 2Q Net Down 20% On Revenue Decline, Traffic Woes
Setting aside the relatively small (but growing) piece of the pie currently represented by eBooks, there’s a much bigger question that needs to be asked.
Considering the various complications surrounding them — everything from the controversial Google Book Settlement to the thorny issues of pricing, rights, royalties and distribution — the Apple Tablet, or any eReader that is able to duplicate the iPod’s success, would appear to be a “careful what you wish for” proposition.
It’s worth remembering that the iPod didn’t “save” the music industry, it radically transformed it, primarily to Apple’s benefit, and to a much lesser degree, some musicians.
Is the publishing industry really ready for that transformation?
